Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 18.607958 21.543114 24.722153 28.412569 32.569747 37.098686 42.396589
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.305662 18.444455 23.342069 29.523556 37.071812 45.941163 57.099000
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.999091 15.602965 21.489392 29.468670 39.889475 52.912151 70.273866
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.284712 14.295671 21.136347 30.974461 44.543928 62.355568 87.208556
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.755841 12.877709 20.299256 31.552550 47.836851 70.140696 102.496148
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.470938 11.535110 19.291555 31.636218 50.289620 76.823355 116.654288
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.468819 10.423735 18.415663 31.713680 52.610886 83.360104 130.939164
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.076726 10.235767 18.922459 33.913755 58.232428 95.001621 153.283384
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.598854 9.804240 18.947585 35.296923 62.641882 105.071647 173.877289
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.174128 9.389553 18.927608 36.563155 66.913414 115.149290 195.027677
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.631063 8.646033 18.214284 36.531243 68.993032 121.861860 211.291384
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.062986 7.743324 17.076163 35.593731 69.408214 125.859023 223.406165
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.566967 6.912689 15.987328 34.670563 69.847073 130.061403 236.368692
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.260119 6.447562 15.563584 34.961647 72.484771 138.142388 256.246723
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.933060 5.864797 14.809534 34.511291 73.704015 143.848908 272.457272
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.805899 5.753231 15.049614 36.082810 78.837344 156.691348 301.525098
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.624617 5.460285 14.839691 36.682577 82.118695 166.388034 325.583108
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.433035 5.095446 14.409017 36.754935 84.347901 174.280814 346.837307
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.266783 4.763654 14.005851 36.834300 86.577541 182.274617 368.640438
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.241825 4.852934 14.651181 39.333151 93.945901 200.277296 409.410811
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.171302 4.784187 14.885519 40.903419 99.474539 215.055134 444.905917
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.099827 4.696510 15.057957 42.340702 104.812457 229.724609 480.828739
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.976238 4.401832 14.635047 42.304260 106.961571 238.284284 505.672449